Mortgage Market Overview – 06/30/09

The Johnson Redbook chain store sales were down 4.3% yr/yr but fractionally better than -4.4% yr/yr last month. Consumers remain mostly sidelined on job losses and the fear of future jobs being lost.

  
At 9:00 the Case/Shiller Home Price Index was down 18.1% in April after declining 18.70% in March and better than -18.75% expected. Foreclosures continue to depress prices. The measure declined 19% in January, the most since the data began in 2001. The home-price index figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.
 
At 9:45 the June Chicago purchasing mgrs index, expected at 40.0 frm 34.9, hit at 39.9. New orders component at 41.6 frm 37.3, prices pd at 36.6 frm 29.8 and employment  at 28.9 frm 25.0. All components imp[roved but are still contracting—below 50.
 
At 10:00 eastern the final economic release today, June consumer confidence index; expected at 55.0 frm 54.9 was weaker at 49.3 and May was revised to 54.8. The present situation index fell from 29.7 in May to 24.8 in June. The report is opposite what we had with the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index but we would put more credibility in the report today.
 
The Fed is scheduled to buy more treasuries today on the $300B announced bond purchase program announced in March.
 
Treasuries and mortgage prices continue to fall at 10:15 eastern. Trade is thin and selling today is more technical than substantive so far.